It looks highly likely that Conan O'Brien has decided to blink and to make himself the odd man out over at NBC. While, Conan O'Brien claimed in a letter that he was concerned for the reputation of THE TONIGHT SHOW, and that moving the show to 12:05 would only hurt that TV institution, it seems like this ploy is only likely to end O'Brien's run on the network and as THE TONIGHT SHOW host. NBC will likely not ask O'Brien to stay. Further, NBC will be released from any legal obligations to pay O'Brien a $50 million settlement if he walks as well. Apparently,O'Brien failed to protect himself by not setting a starting time for his TONIGHT SHOW in his contract as was widely thought by a number of TV analysts. So now, O'Brien really has little wiggle room. By his own hand, O'Brien may be ending his talk show hosting days.

Several years ago when Jay Leno wanted to retire, NBC decided that Conan O'Brien would be the next logical host. So an orderly transition schedule was set up. But then Leno changed his mind, and money problems over at NBC gave birth to the idea of a prime-time version of Jay Leno's TONIGHT SHOW that could be produced on a small budget. By eliminating five high priced 10pm dramas, and putting on a really cheap talk show, NBC expected to save millions of dollars a day. But the whole gamble badly backfired for NBC. Conan O'Brien was a ratings disaster for THE TONIGHT SHOW, only holding on just 48% of the audience numbers that Jay Leno had. And Leno's new 10pm show was a real ratings disaster as well. Now with so much damage wrought, NBC will likely replace Jay Leno as THE TONIGHT SHOW once again and hope that the audience numbers come back. And the climb of Conan O'Brien as an NBC commodity is probably over.

O'Brien may hope for an offer from a network like FOX. However, with his big NBC salary, and the inability to hold on to THE TONIGHT SHOW ratings audience, this dream might not jell, either. As funny as Conan O'Brien is, he just might find himself priced out of a job very soon. And that would be very sad.